A Waymo Jaguar I-PACE costs ~$150k + $30k AV kit. At $1.80/mile and 40% utilization, payback takes 3 years — but remove the safety driver and utilization jumps to 60%, cost drops to $0.45/mile.
Unit Economics 2026
- Revenue: $1.20–$1.80/mile (Uber is $2.20)
- Cost: $0.90/mile (energy, cleaning, remote assist, depreciation) → gross margin 25%
- Scale lever: Purpose-built vehicles (Zoox, Cruise Origin) cut vehicle cost 40%
Path to $0.30/mile
Mass-scale manufacturing + 75% utilization + cheaper insurance (AVs crash 60% less) gets to $0.30 — cheaper than owning a car in cities. That’s the Uber-killer moment.